Amara’s Law

I attended the recently held (April 22-24) Brazil at Silicon Valley conference. It was very enjoyable and entertaining to be together with more than 500 Brazilian startup founders and VCs. After all, VC is a non-zero-sum network business.

AI was, of course, the main theme at the conference. And there is no doubt that the AI impact on society and on businesses will be huge.

However, in the middle of the AI frenzy, one of the speakers shared Amara’s law with the audience:

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run” – Roy Amara, an American futurist

Which led me to some reflections using an “AI investor’s hat”:

* Companies, as in every beginning of a tech cycle, tend to become overvalued – so beware with the “madness of the masses”

* Selling shovels during a gold rush is usually the surest way to make money – so AI infrastructure startups should become the surest bets in the sector

* More mature software startups that can use AI to improve their products and services should benefit the most – so late stage well-funded software startups have the potential to leapfrog the competition

Conclusion

It is a privilege to be investing in AI during the innovation trigger phase.

But there is no need to be in a hurry, since Amara’s law is guiding Fabrica Ventures AI investment approach: the AI fruits are to be picked a little after the inflated expectations wave breaks.