A Key Assumption

Omada Health, a Fabrica Ventures portco, has just filed for IPO (pricing range, timing, and size are still tbd).

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As of 2022, over 156M Americans were living with one or more chronic conditions — including obesity, prediabetes, diabetes, hypertension, and musculoskeletal issues. Roughly 40% of U.S. adults had two or more chronic conditions. The burden of the acute complications they cause drives significant costs for employers and health plans.

While many chronic conditions can be managed or prevented at a reasonable cost, patients are often left to navigate care alone. Sticking to treatment plans and achieving health goals — like weight loss, improved diet, or increased physical activity — is a major challenge.

Behavior change is difficult. Omada was built to make it easier. Its virtual care programs leverage technology to personalize each patient’s experience, enabling results at scale.

Omada serves 2K+ customers and has enrolled over 679K members across its programs, supporting more than 1M members since inception.

Revenue grew 38%, from $123M in 2023 to $170M in 2024, and rose 57% on a quarterly basis (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2025). 2024 EBITDA remained negative at $29M — typical for high-growth startups — while net dollar retention reached a strong 128%.

Omada Health’s IPO underscores a key Fabrica Ventures Fund assumption: that high-growth startups with around $200M in revenue would be reaching the public markets (all of our portcos now show revenues above $100M).

Exits, whether through IPOs or M&A, are essential to keep the venture flywheel in motion So, beneath this assumption lies a broader issue about economic dynamism: without risk capital and a healthy capital circulatory system, economies stagnate. Brazil’s anemic venture and entrepreneurial ecosystem is a case in point — real per capita GDP remains at 2013 levels.

Over the past 3 years, we have been witnessing a strangulation of liquidity in the US VC market. So why aren’t more outstanding private companies going public?

A major culprit is regulation — the cost of being public has become too high. Nearly 43% of public companies are currently under antitrust investigation, and about half of the S&P 500 face securities class actions or antitrust cases (at any given time).

Conclusion

The Silicon Valley ecosystem is an aspiration for every country, yet it’s been undermined by artificially created regulatory challenges.

Until recently, non-skin-in-the-game Wall Street analysts insisted that $1B in revenue was the floor for IPOs. Omada is proving them wrong.

We are hopeful that our $200M revenue IPO assumption will be validated once again. Best of luck, Omada!