All Waters Run to the Sea

CB Insights has just released its 2025 global “State of Venture” report.

Two statistics in particular stood out to me:

1. The US share of global VC funding

Historically, the US captures roughly half of global venture capital, with Asia accounting for about one-quarter and Europe around one-fifth. For instance, at the 2021 peak — when global VC funding reached $717.3B — that distribution held.

In 2025, the global venture market rebounded from the 2023 trough of $290B to $469B. But the real story is concentration: the US captured 70% of total funding (pushing US venture investment close to its 2021 peak). This shift reflects two primary forces:

i) China’s structural sharp contraction — from $35.3B in 2021 to $12.7B in 2025 (a 64% decline), and

ii) the continued rise of the AI mega-cycle — the structural force reinforcing venture concentration, which leads to the second point.

2. US-dominated AI

In 2025, AI startups captured 48% of total global venture funding ($225.8B), a striking signal of the sector’s strength and capital intensity.

Even more remarkable, US-based AI companies absorbed 93% of that total, or $210.7B. AI, from a VC allocation standpoint, has become a US story.

And because AI is largely a Silicon Valley phenomenon, the region’s share of US venture funding rose from 32% in 2021 to 55% in 2025.

Moreover, given AI’s capital intensity, mega-rounds ($100M+) accounted for 65% of global VC funding in 2025, across 738 deals.

Conclusion

In VC, that sea is the US, and its tide is AI.